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DECLASSIFIED 
SEE EXCHANGE & GIFT D1V» 
^CLASSIFICATION FILE NO- p M 1 


u, 



Research and Analysis Branch 


i 


i • 

R & A No. 2959 


THE FOOD POSITION OF JAPAN 


Description 


An analysis of domestic production, trade, carry-over, and 
utilization of food in 1943-1944; including a detailed study 
of per capita consumption of fourteen principal consumer 
groups, and an analysis of the nutritional value of the 
diet of each group. A description of changes in 1944-1945 
and a discussion of prospects for 1945-1946. 


1 April 1945 


Copy No._ 

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YY\OJi '\ Ji? 


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TABLE OF CONTENTS 


SUMMARY .. ii 

I. Introduction.. . 1 

II. Production and Imports. 4 

III. Consumption. 12 

IV, Food Balance in 1943-44 • .. 39 

V. Changes in 1944-45. 51 

VI. Prospects for 1945-4G. 54 

APPENDICES.* . 57 

A. Methods and Sources Used in this 

Study. 57 

B. Nutritional Conversion Factors. • • 59 

C. Population by Consumer Groups ... 61 


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Errata: 


Table 1, p. 5, 
column 1: 
column 3: 
column 7: 
column 9: 


line 12, "Sugar" should 

1 / 


152 instead of 202 
1102 instead of 1152 
89 instead of 67 
85 instead of 81 


read: 


Table 2, p, 6, replace "Cane Sugar" column: 
Sugar (000 mt.) 


2 / 

JAPAN TOTAL 136“ 

Okinawa 83 

Kagoshima 15 

Hokkaido 36 

Others 2 


1. 112,000 metric tons of cane sugar and 40,000 metric 

tons of beet sugar* 


2* 100,000 metric tons of cane sugar and 36,000 metric 

tons of beet sugar• 


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SUMMARY 

Before the war, as now, Japan T s food economy was characterized by 
intensive production of high-yielding crops, minimum waste in distribution, 
and a level of consumption low in comparison with western countries, both 
in quantity and in quality# Only in this way have the islands been able to 
achieve near self-sufficiency in food for their large and rapidly expanding 
population# Even before the war nearly one-fifth of food supplies were 
obtained from Japan T s colonies# 

The war led to a further tightening of Japan’s food supply. By 

1943, food production in terms of original food energy had declined by about 
five percent compared with the high level reached in the late 1930’s# Import 

after rising to a peak in 1941 and 1942, had fallen a little below the pre¬ 
war level in the crop year 1943-44. In 1944, total production decreased 
by an additional three percent, while 1944-45 imports are expected to be 
about twenty-five percent lower than pre-war# The total supply for 1945 
will thus be at least ten percent below prewar. 

Efforts were made to counteract the gradual deterioration of Japan’s 
.supply position by an even more careful husbanding of the available re¬ 
sources# To cover essential food requirements, rice polishing was reduced 
and sake' manufacture and other non-food uses were drastically curtailed. 

Thus, in 1943-44 the ultimate food energy derivable from production and 
imports was almost equal to pre-war. Even in 1944-45 it will be around 

nety—four percent of the pro—war total# Diffefonoial rationing was intro¬ 
duced to assure the equitable distribution of supplies according to physi¬ 
ological need. 


ii 


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In spite of these measures, the average caloric into.ke was reduced 
by about ten percent, from 2270 calories per capita per day in the late 
1930's to 2050 calories in 1944. At the same time, the quality of the diet — 
always characterized by extreme frugality — deteriorated further. Starchy 
foods have become even more preponderant than before the war, and the fat 
deficiency has been further aggravated. Rice contributes more than one-half 

of the total food energy, other grains about ten percent, sweet potatoes and 
Irish potatoes about eight percent, and soybeans and other beans seven percent. 

Fish, the only important source of animal protein, has become very scarce and 

contributes less than three percent of the food energy. Sugar consumption 

declined by forty percent, and was further cut in 1945. Except for sugar, 

1945 rations are approximately unchanged compared with 1944. 

The figures mentioned above are national averages. Food consumption, 
however, varies according to age, sex and degree of physical activity; and 
there are some regional dietary variations within each consumer group. 

The ten percent curtailment of consumption was not dictated by an 
immediate emergency. With the savings afforded by the reduction in polish¬ 
ing and other forms of waste, production and imports in 1943-44 could have 
supported a consumption level only two percent below pre-war. The conclusion 
which suggests itself is that rations were cut down to a bare minimum, and 
Japan's food self-sufficiency was increased from eighty to nearly ninety 
percent, in order to build up and maintain reserves in the expectation of 

an Allied blockade. 

The early expansion of reserve stocks was greatly aided by the 1941 
and 1942 imports and by an excellent rice crop in 1942. With nationwide 

• • • 
in 


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rationing of rice instituted early in 19<t2, expansion of reserves continued 
through the harvest of 1943* Because 1944 crops provided only eighty-five 
percent of requirements in 1944-45 and because imports have continued to 
decline, the carryover into this year’s harvest will probably be not much 
larger than it was a year ago. 

It is estimated, however, that excess stocks before this autumn’s 
crop will equal about 1,6 times the estimated annual deficit at prospective 
1945 production levels, assuming an average daily per capita intake in the 
future of 2000 calories. In other words, it appears that Japan could with¬ 
stand an effective blockade for almost two years with only a slight decline 
in consumption below present levels, A somewhat greater reduction of con¬ 
sumption would make it possible for Japan to bridge two harvests. 

It should be kept in mind, however, that the estimate of stocks is 
subject to a large cumulative error. ’’Excess stocks” may actually be much 
smaller. Furthermore, Japan’s agriculture is exceptionally vulnerable be¬ 
cause of its great dependence upon a large input of nitrogenous fertilizer. 
If nitrogen production or distribution has been significantly disrupted 
before this year’s plantings, yields in 1945 might decline by more than five 
percent. Stocks may be lost by spoilage and bombing. Transportation and 
distribution may deteriorate further so that the food supply in the cities 
may decline while stocks are hoarded in the country. The deterioration of 
wartime controls and the fear of inflation may cause farmers to refuse to 
market their produce through legal channels and at legal prices. They may 
be inclined, instead, to increase their own consumption, to hoard surpluses 


iv 


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over farm requirements, and to soil or barter food at black market prices. 
The European experience in World War II has shown that such developments 
may lead to widespread starvation among some groups of the population while 
other groups are comparatively well fed. 


v 


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THE FOOD POSITION OF JAPAN 

I. INTRODUCTION 

Despite the rapid industrialization of Japan during the past few 
decades, agriculture remains the principal industry of the Japanese# On 
as little as 15>000,000 acres of land, it provides employment to two-fifths 
of the islands* working population of 32,800,000, Only sixteen percent of 
the total area of Japan is cultivated, further expansion being limited by 
the mountainous character of the country# 

Thus the acreage of available land is small in relation to Japan’s 
large and rapidly growing population# If, nevertheless, Japan has been able 
to approach self-sufficiency in food (before the war only twenty percent of 
the total caloric requirements was imported), it has been due to the intensive 
application of labor and fertilizer, and the almost exclusive use of crops 
for direct human consumption# In the regions favored by a mild and wet 
climate, painstaking practices of irrigation and transplanting enable the 
Japanese farmer to harvest either two crops of rice each year or a crop of 
some other grain in addition to a crop of rice. Furthermore, the lavish use 
of natural and chemical fertilizer raises average yields per acre to levels 
unequalled in any other country. Livestock is practically unknown, so that 

1 / 

little food energy is wasted by converting crops to moat and dairy products, 

IT The ultimate food energy obtained from an acre of land devoted to the 
production of livestock feed is only ten to thirty percent of the food energy 
which can be obtained from the same unit of land devoted to the production of 
crops for direct human consumption. 


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Waste of food in processing and distribution is kept to a minimum. As a 
result of all these factors, the productivity, in terms of ultimate food 
energy, of an acre in Japan is about nine times as high as that of an acre 

I/ 

in the United States* 

Needless to say, this high degree of self-sufficiency is possible 
only with a diet of low quality, consisting largely of starchy staple foods 
such as rice, other cereals, Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes. Before the 
war rice contributed more than one-half of the total food energy, other 
grains about ten percent, sweet potatoes and Irish potatoes seven to eight 

t 

percent. Fish, the only important source of animal protein, contributed , 
about four percent of the food energy. 

The principal imports are rice (about twenty percent of home production 
sugar ( abou^ six times as much as domestic production), and soybeans 
(150 percent of production). See Table 1. 

By 1943, wartime shortages of manpower and fertilizer had resulted 
in a decline of more than five percent in agricultural production compared 

a/ 

with the high level reached in the late 1930 T s. Imports rose to a peak in 

/ 

1941 and 1942, but have since declined reaching about the pre-war level in 
1943-44. To cover essential food requirements rice polishing was reduced 

~ Before the war, Japan produced about 1840 calories per capita per day, 
oi* somewhat over 130 billion calories per day, on 15,000,000 acres of 
cultivated land. In the United States, 3080 calories per capita per day, 
or 400 billion calories per day were produced.on 415 million acres of crop 
land. This is equivalent to 960 calories per day per aero, as compared with 
8670 in Japan. 

- . « 

2. In terms of original food energy produced domestically, theaaverace of 
1935, 1937 and 1939 is used as a base. 


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and the quantity of food diverted to non-food uses such as sake was drastically 
curtailed* In spite of these measures, the average caloric intake of the 
Japanese, as shown below in the analysis of rations and probable extra legal 
consumption, seems to have declined by about ten percent, from 2270 calories 
per capita per day in 1935-36, 1937-38, 1939-40, to 2050 calories in 1943-44* 
Part of the explanation for this reduction lies in the stockpiling program 
which the Japanese leaders imposed in expectation of an Allied blockade* 

To insure the equitable distribution of the diminishing supply, de¬ 
livery quotas were imposed on producers of rice and other staple foods, and . 
the quantities collected were distributed through rations differentiated 
according to age, sex, and degree of physical activity. 



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- 4 - 

II. PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS 
The production and imports of major foodstuffs and total supplies, 

x/ 

pre-war and 1943-44 are shown in Table 1. The geographical distribution of 
the principal crops is presented in Tables 2 and 3* 

A, Production 

' 2 / 

Japan 1 s 1943-44 domestic production of original food energy • is 

estimated to have declined by somewhat over five percent from the pre-war 

level. Declines were greatest in milk and dairy products, which have always 

been of minor importance in the Japanese diet. Production of sugar declined 

by about one-tenth; fruits and fish by one-fourth; and vegetables and grains 

other than rice by one-fifth. Rice production decreased by only two percent* 

9 , 

Production increases took place in soybeans (+ 16 percent); other beans 
(4- 19 percent); sweet potatoes ( 4 . 22 percent); and Irish potatoes (-f 26 percent) 
Generally speaking, the distribution of the principal crops is quite 
homogeneous throughout Japan. There are some instances of geographic speciali¬ 
zation, however, due largely to variations in climate, Hokkaido produces 
only four percent of the rice grown in Japan, but accounts for half of its 
potatoes, half of its dairy products, almost all of its livestock, two-fifths 
of its beans, one third of its fish, and one-fourth of its sugar production.* 

The prefectures in Kyushu and Shikoku, facing the ocean, most nearly approxi¬ 
mate a tropical climate. Kyushu produces more than one-third of Japan T s 
sweet potatoes, and Kyushu’s southernmost prefecture of Kagoshima (which 
includes part of the Ryukyu Islands) accounts for about one-tenth of the 

1943-44 crop year, beginning in the fall of 1943. 

2. Original food energy is the energy which agriculture would provide if all 
crops were used exclusively as food. 


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- 8 - 

sugar production in Japan proper, ana^Okinawa for over sixty percent* Kochi 
is the only prefecture \vhere a second rice crop is grown regularly* 

1* Rice* This basic staple of the Japanese diet is grown in the low- 

1/ 

lands and plains of Japan, wherever irrigation is possible* It occupies 

about 3*1 million hectares, or forty percent of the total crop acreage (double 

cropped land being counted twice)* But even so the quantity produced is far 

from sufficient to cover the requirements of the population* A normal pre-war 

crop in Japan Proper yielded about 9,4 million metric tons; the 1943 crop 

amounted to 9*2 million metric tons* Of this 2*2 million metric tons or 

the 

almost one-fourth are produced in/kanto administrative region, 1*5 million 

metric tons in the Tohoku region, about 1*3 million metric tons each in Kyushu 

♦ 

and Tokaido, 1*1 million metric tons in Kinki, 850,000 metric tons in Chugoku; 
about 400,000 metric tons each in Shikoku and Hokkaido, and 18,000 metric tons 
in Okinawa, Significant surpluses of rice are produced in the prefectures 
of Niigata, Akita, Yamagata, Toyama, Shiga, Miyagi, and Saga, in that order. 
Rice is heavily fertilized and yields per acre are high; the consumption of 
nitrogeneous fertilizer per acre is greater than in any other country or for 
any other crop. Owing to an equable climate, yields in Southwestern Japan 
are higher and less variable than in the north. 

2. Other grains. Wheat is grown either on upland farms or as a winter 
crop in paddy fields* In a normal year, about 3.2 million metric tons of 
wheat were produced in Japan; in 1943 the production amounted to only 1*1 
million metric tons. Kanto accounts for about 400,000 metric tons or more 
than one-third of the total production. Kyushu produces 250,000 metric tons 

T"^ Less than five percent of the total crop is grown on dry land* 


RESTRICTED 































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— 










































































• . 
















. 


























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9 


RESTRICTED 


and Chugoku, Tokaido and Kinki about 100,000 metric tons each* 

Closely competing with wheat as upland crops or as winter crops on 
rice fields are barley and naked barley, of which about 1.5 million metric 
tons were normally grown in Japan* In 1943, the production amounted to about 
1*3 million metric tens* More than seventy percent of the barley crop is 
produced in Kanto and Tohoku; whereas naked barley is mainly grown in the 
south. In addition, Japan normally produced about 270,000 metric tons of 

minor grains (buckwheat, millet, and corn). In 1943, production of these 
grains amounted to about 240,000 metric tons. 

3# Soybeans and other beans * Soybeans and azuki beans are the principal 
legumes* In 1943 Japan produced about 400,000 metric tons of soybeans, almost 
seventy percent of which are grown in central and northern regions, with 
Tohoku accounting for more than t\venty-five percent and Hokkaido and Kanto 
producing more than twenty percent each. The 1943 production of other beans 
amounts to somewhat less than 300,000 metric tons. Of this Hokkaido is 
estimated to have produced about 120,000 metric tons, or more than forty per¬ 
cent • 

4. Sweet potatoes and Irish potatoes. Japan produced normally some 
3.6 million metric tons of sweet potatoes, but'the 1943 production was more 
than twenty percent above the pre-war level. Kyushu (including the northern 
Ryukyus) accounts for more than one-third of the total production. Irish 
potatoes are extensively grown in the northern part of the country* Total 
production in 1943 amounted to 2,025,000 metric tons. Hokkaido is by far 
the leading prefecture, producing more than fifty percent; Kanto and Tohoku 
account for sixteen and twelve percent respectively* 


RESTRICTED 




* 


- 10 - RESTRICTED 

5, Fresh vegetables and fruits* In 1943 Japan produced about 5*5 million 
metric tons of fresh vegetables, including giant radishes, turnips, taro, 
watermelons, egg plants, pumpkins, cabbage, cucumber, carrots, musk melons, 
burdock and lotus roots* Total fruit production amounted to one million metric 
tons* The prefectures of Shizuoka, Wakayama and Aomori account for more than 
ten percent each of the total Japanese production of fruits, and the prefecture 
of Ehime for about six percent. Mandarin oranges, persimmons, apples, pears, 
and plums are the principal fruits grown. 

6. Sugar. In 1943 Japan proper produced only about 136,000 metric tons 
of sugar, or less than twenty percent of total requirements. Over eighty 
percent cf the domestically produced cane sugar is grown in Okinawa, and all 
of the beet sugar is produced in Hokkaido. 

7. Fish. Before the war the total coastal and deep-sea fish catch from 
Japanese ports amounted to about three million metric tons. The 1943 catch 
is estimated to have been about twenty-five percent below normal, Hokkaido 
accounts for one-third of the total catch, and Kyushu for fifteen percent. 

8, Livestock products. Livestock raising plays a minor role in 
Japanese agriculture. In 1943 Japan produced about 125,000 metric tons of 
moat. 

Egg production in 1943-44 totalled 206,000 metric tons of which the 
prefecture of Aichi alone supplied sixteen percent. The prefectures of 
Shizuoka and Chiba 'produced somewhat over five percent each. 

Milk production amounted to only 132,000 metric tons in 1943 (about 
two quarts per head per annum); Hokkaido, with one-third of the total productio 


RESTRICTED 






- 11 - 


RESTRICTSD 


is the leading prefecture. 

The total production of processed dairy products was 20,000 metric 
tons in 1943* Hokkaido accounts for almost one-half of this amount. 

B. Imports and Tota l Supply 

The only major imports are rice, soybeans, other beans, sugar, and 
fish, Japan is dependent on Korea, Formosa, and other foreign areas for 
about fifteen percent of its rice requirements. It imports fifty-five per¬ 
cent of its soybeans and other beans, chiefly from Manchuria; over eighty 
percent of its sugar, principally from Formosa; and about ten percent of it 
fish supply. 

In terms of food energy, total imports in 1943-44 were approximately 
at the pre-war level* Imports of sugar were about fifteen percent less and 
imports of rice seven percent less. Imports of beans, on the other hand, 
increased by about twenty percent and imports of soybeans by over seventy- 
fife percent compared with the pre-war period. 

Total supplies thus declined by little more than five percent. The 

sharpest reductions were in fish, sugar, fruits and vegetables. The supply 

* 

of grains was fairly well maintained, and increases took place in beans, 
soybeans, Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes. (See Table 1.) 


RESTRICTED 



- 12 - 


REST RICT ED 


III. CONSUMPTION 

Rice is by far the most important item in the Japanese diet. This doe 
not mean, however, that the Japanese "lives on rice" to the exclusion of 
other foods. 

The average pre-war diet of Japan is estimated to have supplied about 
2270 calories per capita per day. About four-fifths of these calories were 
obtained from domestic production. Before the war, rice contributed about 
fifty-four percent of his total food energy (see 4 Table 4). Other grains 
supplied eleven percent of the calories, sugar eight percent, sweet potatoes 
and potatoes seven percent, soybeans and other beans six percent, fish four 
percent* and all other foods ten percent. All livestock products together 

contributed only 1 0 4 percent of the total food energy. 

Because of the preponderance of starchy foods, the average daily per 
capita intake of carbohydrates was 440 grams , most of which was supplied by 
rice, other cereals, and potatoes. The average protein consumption -- sixty- 

six grg|QB > a day -- was adequate. Although rice is not a good source of 
protein, the large quantities consumed make it the largest source. It is 

followed by fish and soybeans. The Japanese diet is notably deficient in 
fat — twenty-seven grams per capita per day, or about one-half of the 
nutritional minimum. Oils, rice, soybeans, and fish are the most important 
sources of fat. 

In 1940, sugar was rationed on a national scale (since 1938 on a 
local basis), and rationing of rice was introduced in many communities. In 
the following year, rice was rationed in Tokyo, Osaka and Kobe; and nation¬ 
wide rationing was finally instituted in February 1942. At the same time. 


RESTRICTED 



Table 4. ESTIMATED PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN 
BY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 
Prewar Average (1935 - 1937 - 1939) 


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CD 

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RESTRICTED 


1* Based on production and net imports in 1935—35, 1937—38, and 1939-40; less deductions for non-food uses; feed 
seed, milling offals, waste in distribution and industrial uses. 

(Footnotes 2, 3, 4, and 5, on next page.) 




- 14 


RESTRICTED 


Table 4* Footnotes (Cont.) 


2, Cucumber, white cucumber, pumpkin, watermelon, muskmfelon, eggplant, 
tomatoes, radishes, turnips, carrots, burdock, taro, lotus roots, green 
onions, cabbage* 

3* Plums, peaches, loquat, Japanese pears, foreign pears, apples, per¬ 
simmons, grapes, oranges, other citrus fruit. ‘ ' - ■ 

4. Including oils, whale meat, aquicultural products and others. 

5. 49*6 grams of vegetable protein and 16.8 grams of animal protein 
(or 25*3 percent of total protein). 


RESTRICTED 


- 15 - 

- 1C - 


RESTRICTED 


other foodstuffs became subject to control, and at present there is hardly 
any food which is exempt from rationing.” 

By 1944, the average energy intake had declined by about ten percent, 

2 / 

to 2050 calories per capita per day (see Table 5). The composition of the 
diet has not changed, except for a slight increase in the consumption of 

Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes, a decline in the consumption of sugar 
and jilo, and a partial substitution of vegetable proteins (soybeans and other 
beans) for animal protein (fish). As a result of this substitution, only 
eighteen percent of the total protein is now derived from animal products. 
Nutrition experts consider that at least twenty-five percent should be animal 
proteins. The fat deficiency has been further aggravated. Soybeans and rice 
are now the most important sources, followed by oils and fish. 

It is important to note that national averages are apt to conceal 

significant differences in levels of consumption between different groups 

3/ 

of consumers. It is estimated that in 1943-44 the non-farm population con¬ 
sumed less than 1900 calories per capita per day (see Table 6), whereas nearly 
2300 calories were available to the average farm consumer (see Table 7). 

Rations are differentiated according to age, sex, and degree of 
physical activity. There are fourteen different consumer groups in Japan, 
whose intake of food energy ranges from as much as 3600 calories for members 
of the armed forces to 1100 calories for small children (see Figure 1). Table 8 

1. For more information on rationing of food sec report on "Wartime Distri¬ 
bution of Food in Japan", prepared by the Office of Strategic Services, Research 
and Analysis Branch, R & A 2989. 

2. Estimates of wartime levels Of consumption are based on rations as reported 
in the Japanese press, special allowances, and extra-legal consumption. These 
estimates were then checked and adjusted against available supplies (domestic 
production and imports). See Appendix A. 

3. See Appendix A for methods of estimation. 


RESTRICTED 





A 


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- 91 - 



Table 5. ESTIMATED PER CAPITA FOOD RATIONS AND EXTRA-LEGAL CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN 

BY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 1 
1943 - 1944 

Resident Population (National Average) 









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RESTRICTED 








Table 7. ESTIIvIATSD DAILY PER CAPITA POOD RATIONS, CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES 
AND EXTRA-LEGAL CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN EY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 

1943 - 1944 
FARM POPULATION 


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RESTRICTED 









RESTRICTED 

CALORIES PER CAPITA PER DAY 
14 CONSUMER GROUPS - JAPAN PROPER 
I 943.44 AVERAGE 


OTHE R 

RICE GRAINS POTATOES SUGAR 



FISH a EGGS 

SOYBEANS MARINE MILK 

OTHER BEANS'PRODUCTS DAIRY PROD. 



OILS 

m m i 


VEGETABLES 
SEAWEEDS MISC. 

FRUITS FOODS 



CARBOHYDRATE FOODS PROTEIN FOODS 


CALORIES 

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 




i l |- 1 -1-1-1- 

ARMED FORCES 

Armed Forces in Japan 




i 

m 

m 



NON-FARM POPULATION 


Extra Heavy Labor 
(Male) 


Extra Heavy Labor 
(Female) 

9 


Heavy Labor 

(Male) 

Heavy Labor 

(Female) 

People (over 60) 
( Male) 


People (over 60) 
( Female ) 


Normal Consumers 


Adolescents 

(about 12-17) 


Children 6-7 years 


Children 3-5 years 


Children 0-2 years 





FARM POPULATION 

8 years and over 


i—-—.- 1 _ i _ i _i_i_ 

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 


Children 0-7 years 




M 



(TD 


PBESENTATION 


3000 3500 





































































































































































































































20 


RESTRICTED 


Tabic 8. ESTIMATED DULY PER CAPITA CALORIC INTAKE 

BY CONSUMER GROUPS 
1943 - 1944 


Consumer Group 

Percentage 
of Total 
Population 

Calorics 

Non-Farm Population 

60.1 

1,874 

Extra heavy labor (Male) 

0.8 

2,832 

(Fcmal c ) 

0.1 

2,331 

Heavy labor (Maic) 

10.8 

2,328 

(Female) 

3.5 

2,150 

Old people over 60 (Male) 

2.1 

1,782 

(Female) 

2.7 

1,711 

(0-2 years) 

4.0 

1,121 

Children (3-5 years) 

4.1 

1,261 

(6-7 years) 

2.7 

1,528 

Adolescents (about 12-17 years) 

8.1 

2,073 

Normal consumers 

21.2 

1,822 

Farm Population 

39.9 

2,290 

Children (0-7 years) 

CO 

• 

1,688 

All others (8 and over) 

32.1 

2,429 

Total Population Resident in Japan 

100.0 

2,050 



RESTRICTED 






















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21 - 


RESTRICTED 


shows the percentages of the population in the various consumer groups, and 
their average levels of caloric intake. More than one-third of the civilian 
non-farm population or twenty percent of the total resident population is 
defined as ’normal consumers.” Members of this category — adults who are 
as a rule not engaged in work requiring heavy expenditure of energy -- receive 
only about 1800 calories per day, including such non-rationed and black market 
supplies as may be available to the average individual. Men engaged in extra¬ 
heavy work are entitled to supplementary rations which raise their total 
daily consumption level to more than 2800 calories. Heavy workers receive 2300 
calories per day. V/omen in these categories receive 2330 and 2150 calories, 
respectively. Old people (over 60 years) are given less than 1800 calories. 
Non-farm children under two years of age receive 1100 calories, children be¬ 
tween three and five years 1260, children between six and seven years 1530, 
and adolescents 2070 calories per day. The consumption of farm children 
under seven years amounts to almost 1700 calories, while the farm population 
over seven years of ago averages 2430 calories per capita per day. The daily 
per capita consumption of the various categories by individual foodstuffs and 
the nutritive value of their diet are presented in Tables 9-22. The 
differences in energy intake are shown to be substantially attributable to 

differences in the rice ration. 

Except for members of the armed forces, workers essential to the war 

effort would appear to be the most favored group. It should be remembered, 

however, that the energy requirements of these groups exceed considerably 

those of the normal consumer. If calorie allowances are compared with calorie 

l/ 

requirements,"" it appears that in reality the workers are least adequately 


TT See footnote 1 in Table 23. 


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BY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 1 
; ■ 1943 - 1944 

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BY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 1 
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E I CALORIES x\ND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 1 
1943 - 1944 

NON-FARM CHILDREN (0-2 yrs.) 


0 

0 

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cd 

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Ph 


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p! 

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- 30 - 


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RESTRICTED 







Table 22. ESTIMATED DAILY PER CAPITA FOOD RATIONS IN JAPAN 

BY CALORIES AND FOOD CONSTITUENTS 
19li3 - 19UU 
ARMED FORCES IN JAPAN 


RESTRICTED 


- 35 - 


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RESTRICTED 


Bread, noodles, flour, etc., in terms of flour. 

Including soysauce, beanpaste, etc., in terms of soybeans. 

Including sugar in bakery goods, sweets, etc. 

82.6 grams of vegetable protein and 29.7 grams of animal protein (or 26$ of total protein) 












+* o o — 


lj.ll V X U1V 


I; 


Table 23. DAILY PER CAPITA CALORIC INTAKE IN JAP.IN 
COMPARED WITH DAILY PER CAPITA CALORIC REQUIREMENTS!/ 



l * A 

. 1943 - 1944 

i 

\ 

i 

. » • » * 




Consumer 
. Groups 

1 

Calorie 

Requi rements£/ 

. (range) • 
(calories) 

Average 

Calorie 

Requirements 

• * • » * * 

(calories) 

Per 

Capita 

Caloric 

Intake 

(calories 

Percentage 
Caloric Intake 
is of 

Requirements 
) (Percent) 

t 

1-2 

1000 - 1200 

1100 

1121 

102 

Children 

2 -* ,5 , 

1200 - 1500- 

1350* ‘ ’ 

‘ ' 1261 

93 


6-7 

1400 - 1800 

1600 

1528 

96 

Adoles cents 

12 - 17 

2400 - 3600 

3000 

2073 

69 

Normal Consumers^/ 


1800 - 3000 

2400 

1894 

79 

Heavy Workers 

ii « 

3100 - 3940 * 

» 4 * • * 

3520 

2328 

66 

Extra Heavy Workers 

< 

4000 - 4800 

4400 

2832 

64 

Garrison Troops 


3000 - 4040 

3520 

3577 

102 


El 

il: 


!• standard of requirements used in this table indicates long-term 

levels of adequate nutrition, rather than minimum wartime consumption levels. 

2. For sources of calorie requirements see appendix B. 

3. Including’ light workers (about 50^o); 2625 caloriesj others; 2200 calories. 


A 

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RESTRICTED / 

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38 


RESTRICTED 


Tabic 24# SUBSTITUTION RATESl/ 


it* 


Quantities of Specified Foodstuffs Equivalent in 
Calorics, Proteins or Fats to 1000 grans of Ricc^/ 


Spcci- 


B. Quantities of 

fied Foodstuffs %/ 

Equivalent in Proteins 
to 1000 grams of Fish4/ 



Calorio 

Protoin 

Fat 

Protein 

c 

quivalcnt5/ 

equivalents/ 

equivalcnt7/ 

cquivalcn 


(grans ) 

(grams)“ 

(grams)“ 

(grams 

Rice 

1,000 

1,000 

1,000 


Wheat 

1,003 

“"TO? 

I77UCF 


Barley 

997 

915 

1,700 


Naked barley 

997 

915 

1,700 


Minor grains 

1,017 

882 

1,700 


Soybeans, dried 

1,017 

215 

94 

605 

Other beans, dried 

1,187 

375 

944 

1,055 

Sweet potatoes 

3,296 

5,000 

2,833 


Irish potatoes 

4,944 

4,410 

17,000 


Sugar 

894 




Fish, medium-fat 
Canned corned 

2,848 

355 

378 

1,000 

beef, medium 

1,703 

296 

142 

834 ' 

Eggs 

Milk, 

2,253 

586 

148 

1,648 

fresh,whole. 
Condensed milk. 

5,159 

2,143 

436 


sweetened 
Evaporated milk. 

1,089 

926 

202 


unsweetened 

2,561 

1,071 

215 


Dried Milk, whole 

718 

291 

64 

818 

Butter 

486 

12,500 

21 


Vegetable oil 

396 

-- 

17 



1/ For source of nutritive factors see Appendix A* 

1,000 grains of brown rice contain 75 grans of protein, 17 grams of fat and 
supply 3,560 calorics, 

3/ Only foodstuffs which arc good sources for protein (containing more than 10 %), 

4/ 1,000 grams of medium fat fish contain 211 grams of protein, 45 grams of 
fat and supply 1,250 calorics (these figures arc an average of different 
kinds of fish), 

5/ 1,003 grams of wheat, or 894 grams of sugar, or 

etc, arc required to provido the seme amount of 
1,000 grams of brown rice, 

6/ 806 grams of wheat, or 215 grams of dried soybeans etc, may be substituted 

for 1,000 grams of brown rice to provide the same amount of protein, 

if 1,000 grams of brown rice supply the same amount of fat 

8 / 


396 grams of vegetable oil, 
oalorics as is supplied by 


as 


do 94 grams of 

dried soybeans, or 17,000 grams of potatoes, or 17 grams of vegetable oil 
etc, 

1,000 grams of fish supply about the same amount of protein as 605 grams of 
dried soybeans or 834 grams of canned corned beef (medium) etc, (animal 
protein can only partly be substituted by vegetable protein; at least 25 
percent of the total protein intake should be of animal origin). 


RESTRICTED 


















•r-A „ 


/ 



















































































- 39 - 


RESTRICTED 


IV. FOOD BALANCE FOR 1943 - 1944 

In 1943-44, the total domestic production of food in Japan was equivalent 

to a net supply of about 1,820 calories per capita per day. Average daily 

1 / 

consumption amounted to 2,050 calories per head. The islands therefore 

supplied nearly ninety percent of their consumption from domestic resources; 

Before the war, Japan depended on imports for somewhat less than twenty 

percent of its requirements. It produced about 1,840 calories per capity per 

day and consumption averaged 2,270 calories# Owing to wartime shortages of 

labor and fertilizer, by 1943 the production of original food energy from 

£/ 

the soil had declined by about five percent. However, by reducing the degree 

* 

of polishing and other forms of waste, and by curtailing the quantity of grain 

£/ 

directed to non-food uses (sake etc.) , the five percent drop in production 
was about offset, so that the total quantity of food available for human con¬ 
sumption, in terms of ultimate food energy, could be maintained at the pre-war 
level. With a slight increase in the population resident in Japan the per 

I 

capita energy supply from domestic production was only barely lower than 
pre-war. Per capita consumption, on the other hand, was reduced by about 
ten percent, thus raising the degree of self-sufficiency from about eighty 

i 

percent to almost ninety percent. 

It is interesting to note that the ten percent curtailment of con¬ 
sumption was not dictated by the inability of the Japanese to import the 
necessary supplies. Net food imports in the crop year 1943-44 are believed 
to have amounted to about 405 calories per head per day, or about ninety-five 
percent of the pre-war level (average 1935-36, 1937-38, 1939-40). Thus 


TT See Section III 

2. See Section II 

3. See Page 40 


RESTRICTED 









- 40 


RESTRICTED 


(Footnote 3 from previous page*) 


3/ The following table illustrates how the decline id the rice supply availabl 
Tor all uses was offset in part by curtailing the quantity of rice used for 
sake', lost in polishing etc* 



Per capita 

Percent¬ 

Deductions 

Percent¬ 

Amount 

Percent 


per annum 

age of 

for non¬ 

age of 

available 

age of 

Year 

disappearance 

prewar 

food uses. 

prewar 

for human 

prewar 


(koku) 

(%) 

seed and 
waste 
(koku) 

(%) 

consumption 
(per capita 
per annum) 
(koku) 

(%) 

Prewar 

1.1 

100 

0.24 

100 

0.86 

100 

1943-44 

0.93 

85 

* 

0.12 

50 

0.81 

94 


RESTRICTED 


- *1 - 


RESTRICTED 


production and imports could have supplied 2,225 calories in 1943-44, that is, 
only two percent less than pre-war consumption; but according to prevailing 
rations 'and estimated illegal disappearance, consumption appears to have run 
about 175 calories less. It is believed that the difference is accounted for 
by further addition to stocks. It appears that rations have been cut to a 
bare minimum in order to build up reserves in the expectation of an Allied 
blockade. The bulk of these stocks consist of rice, supplemented by sugar 
and some preserved fish. 

• 0 I 

The present size of Japan*s accumulated stocks of rice is of course 
a subject of speculation. Whereas wartime levels of production and rationed 
consumption can be estimated with a relatively high degree of reliability, 
estimates of imports and of extra-legal consumption are necessarily subject 
to a wide margin of error. Two alternative estimates were therefore prepared. 
Both start in 1938-39, the last year for which reliable official data on 
foreign trade and carry-over are available. From then on, the cumulative 
movement of stocks was calculated on the basis ol estimates of production, 
net imports, and consumption. One estimate indicates a possible maximum 
stock position. It is based on the assumption of a high efficiency of 
production and distribution controls and a high level of imports (Assumption 
A). The other is a probable minimum estimate, assuming less strict and well 
administered rationing and somewhat lower imports (Assumption B). The 
derivation of these estimates is shown,in Table 25. They would indicate that 
the carry-over at the end of 1943-44 ranged between 3.8 and 6.4 million metric 
tons. This is equivalent to between five and eight months* rice requirements, 

u The estimaT es used in Table 26, column 1 are midway between these extremes. 


RESTRICTED 
















42 - 


RESTRICTED 


or between two and one-half and four months f total caloric requirements, at 
present consumption rates. 

Estimates of sugar stocks vary from £50,000 to 750,000 metric tons* 

i 

Wheat and barley stocks may amount to nearly 250,000 tons; stocks of soybeans 

/ 

to 150,000 tons. There are indications that Japan has considerable reserves 
of smoked and canned fish, amounting to between twenty and fifty percent of 
annual consumption. These reserves can be drawn upon to meet current require¬ 
ments in the event of an effective blockade* 

The complete food balance of Japan for 1943-44, by individual food- 
« 

stuffs, is presented in Table 26* This table shows consumption by various 
consumer groups, non-food uses including seed, feed, and waste, total supplies 
as derived from domestic production and imports, and movement' of stocks* 

In 1943-44, rice imports amounted to about fifteen percent of the* total new 
supply; but two-thirds of the imports seems to have been added to the stock¬ 
pile. Japan was dependent on imports for two-thirds of its soybean require¬ 
ments, forty-five percent of its requirements of other beans. It imported- 
eighty-five percent of its sugar supply, but twenty percent of these imports 
seem to have been added to stocks. Fish imports are estimated to represent 
about ten percent of the total supply, but an even larger quantity than this 
is believed to have been carried over to the following year. 

While Japan as a whole has reached a rather high degree of self- 

♦ 

sufficiency in food, large areas of Japan show a degree of dependence on 
imports which is far in excess of the national average. Conversely, other 
areas show small surpluses over requirements. 


RESTRICTED 


Table Wt. SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION OF RICE 
japan proper 
1939 - 1945 


RESTRICTED 


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RESTRICTED 











































































































Table FOOD BALANCE OF JAPAN 1943-44 

STAPLE FOOD CROPS 


RESTRICTED 


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Table-*8-11. FOOD BALANCE OK JAPAN 1943-44 
OTHER KOCD6TUFFS OF VEGETABLE ORIGIN 


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Table W-III. FOOD B J.ANCE CF JlJblN 1943-44 
FOODSTUFFS OF ORIGIN 


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- 47 


RESTRICTED 


Pre-war food surpluses and deficits of the various regions and pre¬ 
fectures are presented in Table 27 and in the map on page 63. Column 2 

# 

shows the total surplus (+) or deficit (-) of each area in terms of calories 
per capita per day. These estimates represent the difference between the 
indigenous production of ultimate food energy (after deductions for seed, 
waste and non-food uses),and average caloric intake. The latter is known only 
for Japan as a whole; data by prefectures are not available. It is reasonable 
to assume, nevertheless, that regional differences in average caloric intake 

I/ 

are slight and may be neglected. 

In Table 27, column 3, the average daily per capita caloric surpluses 
and deficits have been converted to aggregate annual surpluses and deficits, 
expressed in terms of their rice equivalents. Since rice is the 'staple food 
and could be used for at least short periods to make up for most of the 
deficits, this gives some approximation of the feeding problem in each area 

i 

if usual import sources \vere cut off. It does not of course take account of 
local stocks or of the sharp cuts in food consumption which might be made for 
brief emergency periods. The principal surplus products of the-various areas 
are listed in column 4. 

As might be expected the most serious food deficits are iound in the 
urban areas of the central industrial belt extending from Fukuoka in Kyushu 
east along the southern shore of Honshu to Tokyo® In this belt, the pre¬ 
fecture of Fukuoka, the prefecture of Hiroshima, the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto area 


T7 Seventeen products were used in the calculation of surpluses and deficits; 
rice, wheat, barley, naked barley, other grains, soybeans, other beans, sweet 
Dotatoes# Irish potatoes, vegetables, fruits, sugar, fish (coastal ana deep- 
seaf melt, eggs! milk, and dairy products. The total caloric value of these- 
products was raised by five percent in each prefecture to allow for prouuc s 
not covered (oils, whale meat, aquicultural products and others). 


RESTRICTED 



RESTRICTED 


(prefectures of Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, anu 'Wakayama), the prefectures of 
Aichi (with the city of Nagoya), Nagano and Yamanashi, and the Tokyo-Yokohama 
area (prefectures of Tokyo and Kanagawa) all show deficits in excess of 700 
calories per capita per day, and ranging up to 2,000 calories. 

The most important food surplus areas are in southern and central 
Kyushu (prefectures of Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Saga, and the southern 
portion of Fukuoka); the prefectures of Kagawa and Okayama on opposite shores 
of the Inland Sea, the prefecture of Shiga, adjacent to Kyoto; a seventy mile 
semi-circle to tne north and east of Tokyo (including the prefectures of 
Saitama, Chiba, Ibaraki, most of Tochigi and a part of Gumma); the agricultural 
belt facing the Sea of Japan along the northwestern shore of Honshu, (pre¬ 
fectures of Ishikawa, Toyama, Niigata, Yamagata, and Akita); the northeastern 
prefecture of Miyagi, and the island'of Hokkaido. These prefectures produce 
surpluses equivalent to from one hundred to 1,000 calories per head per day. 

In aggregate terms, surpluses available for use outside the prefecture are 
greatest in Hokkaido, Chiba, and Ibaraki. 

Of the remaining prefectures, those in Kyushu and most of those in 
the western arm of Honshu or in northern Honshu (Nagasaki, Oita, Yamaguchi, 
Tottori, Fukui, Iwate, and Aomori) are approximately self-sufficient. Other 
prefectures in Shikoku and Honshu (Ehime, Kochi, Tokushima, Nara, Mie, Gifu, 
Shizuoka, Gumma, and Fukushima) have moderate food deficits, ranging froti 
two hundred to six hundred calories per' he‘ad per day. 


RESTRICTED 


49 


RESTRICTED 


' 1/ 

Table 27. FOOD SURPLUSES AND DEFICITS IN JAPAN PROPER BY PREFECTURES 
COMBINED AVERAGES (1935, 1937, 1939 OF Ally FOOD PRODUCTS 

AVAILABLE FOR CONSUMPTION^ 


Region 

Average daily per 

Aggregate annual 

Principal sur¬ 

or 

capita caloric sur¬ 

caloric surpluses 

plus products^/ 

'refecture 

pluses or .deficits 
(calories) 

or deficits of all 
foods expressed in 
rice equivalent 
(000 m.t.) 


ushu 


Kagoshima 

/ 

460 

/ 

74 


SP, 

Miyazaki 

/ 

130 

/ 

11 


SP 

Kumamoto 

1 

469 

/ 

65 


R,W,NB,SP 

Oita 


14 

— 

1 


R,W,NB,FR 

Fukuoka 


728 


207 


W 

Saga 

•i 

928 

/ 

65 


R,W 

Nagasaki 

- 

158 


22 


NB,SP,F 

ikoku 







Kochi 

- 

454 

— 

33 



Ehime 


342 


38 


NB,FR 

Tokushima 

0 m 

500 

- 

38 


NB 

Kagawa 

/ 

198 


16 


W,NB 


I 


Algoku 


Yamagushi 

- 

123 

0 m 

16 

F 

Hiroshima 

•-* 

. 845 

- 

158 


Shimane 


296 


22 

R 

Okayama 

•i 

127 


16 

R, W 

Tottori 


81 

— 

4 

R 

nki 

Hyogo 


1,004 


305 

• • ' 

Osaka 


1,769 


822 


Wakayama 


695 

- 

60 

FR 

Nara 


•346 

0m 

22 


Kyoto 

- 

1,378 


245 


Fukui 


48 

- 

3 


Shiga 


460 

•f 

33 

R 

>kaido 

Ishikawa 

/ 

215 

/ 

16 

F 

Toyama 


668 

/ 

54 

R 

Gifu 

- 

448 

— 

54 


Mie 


274 


33 

R 

/dc hi 

— 

894 

- 

267 


Shizuoka 

- 

559 

- 

114 

SP ,F 


RESTRICTED 









- 50 - RESTRICTED 


Table 27. (Continued) 


Region 

Average 

daily per 

Aggregate 

annual 

Principal sur 

or 

capita caloric sur- 

caloric surpluses 

plus products: 

Prefecture 

pluses or deficits 

or deficits of all 



(calories) 

foods expressed in 





rice equivalent 





(000 : 

m.t.) 


Kanto 



- 



Nagano 

— 

724 - • 

pm 

125 


Yamanashi 

— 

•811 

pm 

54 

B 

Kanagawa 

pm 

1,344 

pm 

•261 


Tokyo 

mm 

1,965 

- 1 

,355 


Saitama 

/ 

96 

/ 

16 

W,B,SP,V 

Gumma 

— 

•381 

pm 

49 

W,B 

Chiba 

/ 1,038 

4 

174 

W,B,£P,F,V 

Ibaraki 

/ 

915 

4 

147 

R,W,B,SP,F,V 

Tocliigi 

/ 

280 

4 

33 

W,B 

Niigata 

/ 

307 

/ 

65 

R 

Tohoku 




i 


Fukushima 

— 

210 


33 

B 

Miyagi 

/ 

250 

4 

33 

R,B,F 

Yamagata 

/ 

231 

4 

27 

R 

Iwate 

/ 

24 

4 

3 

SB,F, B 

Akita 

/ 

325 

/ 

3 

R 

Aomori 

- 

43 

Pm 

4 

FR,F 

Hokkaido 

/ 

879 

4 

2S& 

MG,SB,0B, 






IP,F,M,DP 

1* Surpluses 

and deficits 

are defined 

as the difference between (l) 

the aggregate 

caloric value 

of crops and 

other commodity production 

available for 

food in each 


prefecture (i,e., after deductions for non-food use — feed, seed, milling, offals, 
waste in distribution and industrial uses — calculated on a uniform percentage basis 
for each prefecture’s production) and (2) aggregate caloric consumption (calculated 
on a uniform basis of 2270 calories per'capita per day in each prefecture), 

2* Including 17 products: rice, wheat, barley, naked barley,'other grains, soybeans 
other beans, sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, sugar, vegetables, fruit, fish (coastal 
and deep-sea), meat, eggs, milk and dairy products. The total caloric value of these 
products was raised by five percent in each prefecture to allow for food products not 
covered (oils, whale, meat, aquicultural products and others), 

3, Calculated as indicated in note (1), but for a single product. The surplus 
actually shipped out may be greater or less than the calculated figure, depending 
on differences among prefectures in consumption of particular foods* 

R-rice, W-wheat, B—barley, NB-naked barley, MG-ininor grains, SB-soybeans, OB-other 
beans,'SP-sweet potatoes, IP-Irish potatoes, V-vegetables, FR-fruits, F-fish, S-sugar 
M-milk, DP-dairy products. 


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51 


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V. CHANGES IN 1944-45 

The 1944 rice crop in Japan fell probably 200,000 to 300,000 
metric tons short of nine million metric tons. V The total domestic outnut 

L 

of ultimate food energy may have declined from two to four percent compared 
with 1945. £/ In addition, total imports in 1944-45 are expected to decline 
by about twenty percent; rice imports by one-third. V Table 28 lists 

* 

production and imports. Imports would account for about fifteen percent 
of the total food supply. 

# 

The estimates for 1944-1945 food imports assume that a high-to-middling 
priority is given to transportation of foodstuffs for the purpose of main¬ 
taining reserve stocks in Japan in the face of an almost certain decline 
in production in 1945, a probable further decline in 1946, and possible 
partial destruction of existing stocks in bombings of Japanese cities. 

Supplies believed to be obtainable on the continent are large enough to 

M 

allow considerably greater rice imports than estimated — particularly 
from China — if food imports were given top priority. However, the 
estimates for other commodities already allow for importation of virtually 


1. On 29 January 1945, Director Yukawa of the Food Administration Bureau 
of the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce, in a speech before the House 
Budget Sub-Committee, declared that the 1944 rice crop would be below the 
normal level of 61-62 million koku. Inasmuch as early crop estimates as a 
rule proved to be over-optimistic in the past, and were revised downward as 
the season advanced, it is assumed that this year»s crop will be five percent 
below 1943. 

i i 

2. Official reports of January and February 1945 admit a decline in total 
acreage and production. Increases are reported only for sweet potatoes, and 
for wheat and barley. Yukawa put the production of these grains at 24-25 
million koku. This estimate seems to be high. It is assumed that actual 
production probably did not increase more than ten percent over 1943. 

3. Owing to the shipping situation and the developments in the pacific, Japan 
had to cut down on imports from Formosa and French Indochina. Soybean imports 
from Manchuria, however, seem to have increased greatly. 

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52 


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all available surpluses with the possible exception of wheat from China, 

Except for sugar, l/rations this year are approximately unchanged.2/ 
There is, however, substantial evidence that owing to difficulties in trans¬ 
portation and distribution, rations frequently have not been fully honored 
in the larger urban centers. On the other hand, there are signs of a 
weakening of distribution controls, especially for foodstuffs other than 
rice, so that illegal consumption has probably increased. Rationed and 
extra-legal consumption combined are estimated to be about the same in 
1945-44. Japan’s requirements could be approximately covered from current 
productinn and imports, so that carry-over stocks would not have to be drawn 
upon. It is worth noting, however, that this is probably the first year 

since 1938-39 in which there appears to be no significant increase in carry¬ 
over of rice. 3/ 


1. The basic sugar ration has been reduced by about seventy-five percent. 

2. The Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Shimada, declared before the Diet 
that the present rice rations would be maintained in 1945. 

Hamburger Fremdenblatt, 30 January 1945 

3. See Table 25. Assuming a high level of imports end effective controls 

(assumption A), stocks would increase by about 600,000 metric tons. Under 
the minimum assumption (Assumption B), stocks would decline by 400,000 metric 
tons. The ’’most likely estimate” (Average of A and B) indicates a slight in¬ 
crease m stocks of 100,000 metric tons.. ° 


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53 


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Table 28. ESTIMATED PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS OF MAJOR FOODSTUFFS IN JAPAN PROPER 

1944 - 1945 l/ 

(OOO metric tons) 



Production 

Imports 

Rice 

8737 2 

1100 

Viheat 

1222 3 


Barley 

650 3 


Naked Barley 

728 3 


Minor Grains 

240 


Soybeans 

380 2 

1485 

Other Beans 

275 2 

225 

Sweet Potatoes 

4620 4 


Irish Potatoes 

1964 5 


Vegetables 

5500 


Fruits 

900 6 


Sugar 

165 7 

550 

Fish 

1750 8 

175 

Meat 

120 


Eggs 

200 


Milk 

130 


Dairy Products 

19 



IT The methods' and sources used in deriving the estimates presented in this 
table are explained in the text. 

2. Assuming a decrease of 5$ from 1943 production. 

3. Total crop of wheat and barley is estimated at 2.6 million metric -tons, 
an increase of about 10$ over the 1943 crop. The percentage distribution 
(wheat 47$, barley 25$, and naked barley 28$) is based on data for 1935, 1937, 
1939, adjusted for war time changes. 

4* Assuming an increase of 5$ over 1943* 

5. Assuming a decrease of 3$ from 1943. 

6. Assuming a decrease of 10$ from 1943. 

7. 120,000 metric tons of cone sugar and 45,000 metric tons of beet sugar(in 
Hokkaido). 

8c Assuming a decrease of over 40^ from prewar catch. RESTRICTED 




54 


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VI. PROSPECTS FOR 1945-46 

In view of the increasing shortage of fertilizer and other input 
factors, it is believed that with normal weather conditions, Japan’s total 
domestic production of food energy in 1945 will decline by at least five per¬ 
cent compared with 1944, or to about 1670 calories per capita per day. l/ With 
average per capita consumption at the rate of 2000 calories 2/ the deficit 
would amount to 330 calories per capita per day. The total annual deficit 
expressed in terms of brown rice equivalent ©mounts to 2,700,000 metric tons. 

Excluding the new harvest, total stocks at the beginning of the crop 
year 1945-46, expressed as brown-rice equivalents, may be as follows: 


Rice 

5,230,000 

metric tons 

brown 

rice 

bas is 

Sugar 

560,000 

ti 

It 

brown 

rice 

equivalent 

Wheat and Barley 

250,000 

II 

II 

ii 

it 

it 

Soybeans 

150,000 

II 

If 

ti 

ii 

ti 

Fish 

90,000 

It 

11 

ti 

ii 

ti 


6,280,000 

It 

If 

ti 

it 

ti 


About 2,000,000 metric tons of this represent normal distribution stocks 
("pipe line" stocks) necessary to bridge the gap between two harvests and to 
cushion the effect of irregularities in the flow of supplies. The balance, 
representing excess stocks, is equal to 1.6 times the estimated annual 


1. Assuming no change in resident population. 

2. I.e., 50 calories less than in 1943-44. 


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-55- 

deficit at prospective 1945 production levels and an average daily per capita 
intake of 2000 calories. ~ rt-would appear, then-} that Japan could withstand 
an effective blockade for almost 2 years with only a slight decline in 
consumption below present levels. Jx somewhat greater reduction of consumption 
would make it possible for Japan to bridge two harvests. It should be kept 
in mind, however, that the estimato of stocks is subject to a largo cumulative 
error, and ”excess stocks” may actually .bo. only half as large as indicated 
above. Even under this assumption, Japan would seem to bo able to carry on 

for about 1 year without imports. 

These conclusions must be accoptod with groat caution for several 
reasons: (1) No direct evidence as to the size of reserve stocks is available. 
(2) Jaoan’s agriculture is exceptionally vulnerable because of its great 
dependence upon a large input of nitrogenous fertilizer. If nitrogen pro¬ 
duction or distribution has been significantly disrupted, yields in 1945 might 
decline by more than five percent. (3) Stocks may be lost by spoilage and 
bombing, and transportation and distribution may deteriorate further so that 
tho food supply in the cities may decline while stocks are hoarded in the 
country. Reports suggesting intensified food shortages in recent months arc 
regarded as indicating a partial break down of transportation and distribution 
in the larger cities affected by bombings, and possibly also some destruction 
of food stocks in those cities, rather than a generally tight reserve position 
in all parts of the country. 

The deterioration of wartime controls and the fear of inflation may 
cause fanners to refuse to market their produce through legal channels and 


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56 


RESTRICTED 


at legal priews, They may be inclined, instead, to increase their own 
consumption, to hoard surpluses over farm requirements, and to sell or barter 
food at black market prices. The European experience in World Far II has 
shown that such developments may lead to widespread starvation among some 
groups of the population, while other groups are comparatively well fed. 


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- 57 - 


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APPENDIX A 

, Methods and Sources Used in this Study 
The tentative estimates presented in this report are the result of 
a comprehensive analysis of the Japanese food position based on two independent 
approaches: (1) The conventional "supply approach”, starting from production 

and net imports, including an allowance for seed, waste and non-food uses; 

(2) the "consumption approach", based on a detailed study of rations and special 
alloxvances as published in the Japanese press* Both methods are subject to a 
wide margin of error* In some instances in which quantitative information is 
lacking completely, gaps had to be closed by analogy and interpolation* There¬ 
fore, accuracy in detail can not always be claimed for these estimates* Although 
both approaches involve elements of uncertainty and judgment, the general picture 
of supply and ration requirements may be considered as relatively firm in its 
broad outline. 


An attempt at reconciling these two lines of attack reveals, however, 
a discrepancy which must be attributed essentially to two factors of unknown 
magnitude: non-rationed and illegal consumption, and movement of stocks. 

Although quantitative information on these factors is lacking, it is believed 
that the numerous cross-checks and tests of consistency and plausibility 
afforded by a complete food balance, broken down according to products 
(Table 26), effectively minimize errors of judgment. It is hoped that the 
use of this technique thus lends to the results of this study a degree of 
validity not possessed by analyses based on the supply position alone. 

Production and trade figures for 1935 and 1937 were taken from the 

Statistical yearbook o f the Japanese Empire , 1937, 1938, 1939 (Nippon Teikoku 

- — 

Tokei Nenkan); those for 1939 from Agricultural Statistics, 19o9 , 


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58 


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(Norinsho Tokeihyo, Showa 14th Year), published by the Japanese Ministry of 
Agriculture. Wartime estimates are based on Domei broadcasts, Japanese 
newspaper reports; reports in the Oriental Economist (Toyo Keizai) and in 
Die Deutsche Volkswirtschaft and misccllanoous intelligence. "Wartime ostimates 
of production by prefectures arc based on the prewar distribution of pro¬ 
duction, adjusted for known wartime shifts in the geographic location of 
agricultural production. 

Estimates of wartime consumption are based on reports on rations 
and extra allowances published in the Japanese press j Mninichi Shimbun, 

Yomiuri Hochi, As ahi Shimbun (Tokyo), Ab’ahi Shimbun (Osaka), and based in 
part on FCC reports, and other intelligence, and on ostimates of unrationed 
and illegal consumption. The nominal "rice ration' 1 i~ uniform for Japan as 
a whole, but its non-rice components vary both in time and place. Total 
Consumption (including substitutes) is assumed to be equal to the nominal 
ration, since it is thought that occasional special distributions and illegal 
sales are approximately offset by occasional failure to meet the ration duo 
to transport and distribution difficulties. Rice consumption on farms2^/ was 
estimated from the difference between production and collections as indicated 
by the amount of subsidies paid to producers. 2/ To this were added small 

l/ Pure rice, no substitutes. 

2/ Subsidies on deliveries. 


RESTRICTED 






59 


RESTRICTED 


quantities believed to be retained illegally. The amount needed for seed 
was deducted from the total quantity retained by farmers. The estimate of 
total sugar consumption includes extra allowances (which arc quite sub¬ 
stantial), the sugar content of sweets, bakery goods and illegal consumption* 
The basic sugar ration is only a little over one-third of the estimated total 
consumption. Other foodstuffs aro rationed locally and vary from time to time. 
Estimates had to be based on newspaper reports of per capita allowances or 
of food shipments. These reports included information on the number of 
recipients• 

Milk can only be obtained by small children; extra allowances for 
adults are granted only on a doctor's certificate. Fruits are distributed 
mainly to children and,arc only occasionally obtained by adults. The rations 
of green vegetables seem to be smaller in the large urban centers than in 
small towns and villages (probably due to transportation difficulties), 

i 

APPENDIX B 

Nutritional Conversion Factors 

The nutritive factors of foods arc taken from USDA Circular No, 549, 
Proximate Composition of American Food Materials , by Charlotte Chatfield and 
Georgian _'j.dams (see Appendix B, Table 1), Factors for food groups (admixture 
to rice, minor grains, vegetables, fruit, fish, meat and dairy products) are 
averages of the nutritive constants of different varieties in each group. 

The caloric requirements of different consumer groups used in Table 23 
were derived from Food and Nutrition by Ruth Yihcelcr in collaboration with 
Helen Y/hceler* 


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60 


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Appendix B, Table 1. NUTRITIONAL CONVERSION FACTORS 

CALORIES, PROTEINS, FATS, CARBOHYDRATES PER 100 GRAMS OF FOOD 

Fats2/ Carbohydrates3/ 



Calories 

(grams ) 

(grams ) 

(grams ) 

Rice 

356 

7.5 

• 

rH 

77.7 

Admixture to rice 


• 



(grains, soybean 




68.7 

and potato flour) 

370 

12.5 

5.0 

Wheat 

• 355 

9.3 

1.0 

77.2 

Barley 

357 

8.2 

1.0 

78.8 

Naked barley 

357 

8.2 

1.0 

78.8 

Minor grains 

350 

8.5 

1.0 

76.8 

Soybeans, dried 

350 

34.9 

18.1 

12.0 

Other beans, dried 

300 

20.0 

1.8 

51.0 

Sweet potatoes 

108 

1.5 

0.6 

24.1 

Irish potatoes 

72 

1.7 

0.1 

16.0 

Vegetables 

35 

0.9 

0.15 

7 • 5 

Seaweeds 

10 

— 

1.1 


Fruit 

50 

0.6 

0.3 

11.2 

Sugar 

398 

•• 

-- 

99.5 

Fish 

125 

21.1 

4.5 


Moat 

200 

18.6 

14.0 

—— 

Canned corned beef. 





medium 

209 

25.3 

12.0 

—— 

Eggs 

158 

12.8 

11.5 

0.7 

Milk, cow fresh, whole 

69 

3.5 

3.9 

4.9 

Evaporated milk. 





unsweetened 

139 

7.0 

7.9 

9.9 

Condensed milk. 




54.8 

sweetened 

327 

8.1 

8.4 

Dried milk, whole 

496 

25.8 

26.7 

38.0 , 

Dairy products 

300 

16.0 

24.0 

5.0 

Butter 

733 

0.6 

81.0 

0.4 

Oils 

900 

— 

100.0 

—— 


l/ 1 groin of protein provides about 4 calories* 

V i gram of fat provides about 9 calorics* 

3/ 1 gram of carbohydrates provides about 4 calorics. 


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- 61 


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APPENDIX C 

Population by Consumer Groups 

The population estimates used in Table 26 were derived as follows: 
Estimates of resident population: 72,000,000; the estimates for old persons 
over 60, children and adolescents aro based on the age distribution in the 
1950 census* A breakdown of the labor groups by industries and consumer 
groups is shown in Appendix C, Table 1* 

All estimates are subject to revision as further information becomes 
available. 



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- 62 - 


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is roughly equivalent, to "heavy work" performed, by 












PROVISIONAL edition 



reliability of data 


Quantitative & Qualitative Data 
R Reliable 

OR Generally Reliable 
U - Unreliable 
Coverage of Data 
C • Complete 
t • Incomplete 
Location of Data 
A • Accurate 

NE • Not Entirely Accurate 

OA - Only Approx. Accurate 


QUAL. 


QUAN 


data 


calorifs per 


capita 


aggregate 

CALORIC 


equivalent 


OKHOTSK 


PRINCIPAL 


PRODUCTION 


SURPLUSES 


ters R, GR. end U ere an estimate of the reliability 
» data which are measurable. Including economic or 
data, the width of roads, gauges of railroads, etc. 

'S R. GR. end U are an estimate of the reliability of 
data which shows the types of road surfaces, cheracter of 


QUANTITATIVE DATA The latt 
of the map's quantitative data, the 
Population statistics, hypsometric 

QUALITATIVE DATA The letters 
•be map's qualitative wbicb 
beaches, type* terreln, #tC- 
COVERAGE The letters C and I In C 
•be degree of completeness of quan 
LOCATIONAL DATA The letters A, NE, and OA are estlm* 
accuracy of data within the limits of scale and width of line. 


AOMORI 


IWATE 


YAMAGA 


SADO 


FUKUSHIMA 


_ 


GUMMA 


GIFU 


NAGANO 

SAITAMA 

( YAMANASHI T 


FUKUI 


KANAGAWA 


HYOGO 


TOTTORI 


y_ 

SHIZUOl 


SHIMANE <? 


KYOTO 


A1CHI 


OKAYAMA 


TSUSHIMA 


f\ HIROSHIMA 


GAW, 


YAMAGUCHI 


NARA 


TOKUSHIMA 


EH1ME 


WAKAYAMA \ 


and deficits by prefectures expressed in 

AGGREGATE ANNUAL CALORIC 
EQUIVALENT Of ALL FOODS 

In terms of 1000 metric tons of cleaned rice. 
Deficit shown in red, surplus in black. 


SURPLUSES 

CALORIES PER CAPITA PER DAY 


OITA 


KOCHI 


SURPLUS OVER 1000 


Nagasaki 


SURPLUS 400-1000 


SURPLUS 175-400 
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT 


DEFICIT 175-400 


DEFICIT 400-1000 


■ -VeLSe DEFICIT OVER 1000 
PRINCIPAL PRODUCTION 
R RICE 


SURPLUSES 


BY PREFECTURES 


PRODUCTS 


OF PARTICULAR 


FRUITS 


SOYBEANS 


MIYAZAKI 


OTHER BEANS 


WHEAT 


SUGAR 


SWEET POTATOES 
IRISH POTATOES 


BARLEY 

NAKED BARLEY 
MINOR GRAINS 


DAIRY PRODUCTS 


VEGETABLES 


GLOSSARY 


chain of islands 
. island 


retto 

shima 


KILOMETERS 


RESTRICTED 


JAPAN: FOOD uurrLUJtv 

_COMBINED AVERAGES (1935, 1937, 1939) OF ALL FOOD PRODUCTS 


SURPLUSES AND 

AVAILABLE for consumption 


NO. 6297—R& A, OSS 
27 JUNE 1945 


RESTRICTED 







































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































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